My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt.

Extraordinary things have been happening during this coronavirus crisis, and it is throwing up some extraordinary numbers. I could give you second quarter gross domestic product, now revised down slightly to show a fall of 19.8% (from 20.4%), still more than seven times its previous biggest recorded quarterly fall, 2.7% during the three-day week in early 1974.

I could also give you the plunge in the number of people on payrolls, 695,000 between March and August, or anything related to the public finances, where the official projection, a £372bn budget deficit this year, is nearly two and a half times the previous peacetime record, £158bn in 2009-10.

Let me however today focus on another number, the saving ratio. For as long as I have been following these things, which is a very long time, the worry has been that people in the UK do not save enough. We are a nation of spenders not savers, unlike some other countries, and the worry has traditionally been that we leave ourselves unprovided for emergencies, reductions in income and retirement.

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Most of that exceptional increase in saving was involuntary. People saved because they could not spend, including the period when most non-essential shops were closed. Not everybody is able or willing to shop online. During this period of involuntary saving, there were also four consecutive months in which households repaid past borrowings in the form of consumer credit.

Not all of it was involuntary. One of the traditional motives for saving is the precautionary motive; people save because they fear tough times ahead, including unemployment, and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) detected some increase in voluntary saving “in response to the higher levels of uncertainty around their future employment prospects”.

The balance between the involuntary and voluntary motivations for the second quarter surge in saving is an important one. If it was mainly involuntary this would suggest that we ended the period of lockdown earlier in the year with a reservoir of unspent money. If it was mainly voluntary then you might fear that households will be battening down the hatches for some time to come. This would be Keynes’s paradox of thrift in which, by virtue of their saving, people make things worse for the economy and for their employment prospects.

My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt.

Weeks like the one just gone do not come along too often. For economy watchers, the cancellation of the planned November budget and the scaling back of the comprehensive spending review was big news, as was their replacement by another emergency economic package.

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It has drawn both praise and fire but seemed to me to be pretty well-judged, as was the extension of the temporary cut in VAT to 5% for the hospitality sector to the end of March. Involving both the TUC and CBI was politically astute, the former describing it as a “lifeline”, while the employers’ organisation said it will save hundreds of thousands of jobs over the winter.

It should, but it is hard to say how many. The chancellor has left it to employers to determine which are “viable” jobs and is under no illusions that there will, in spite of his efforts, be a substantial rise in unemployment this winter. The chancellor has left incentives to retrain and recruit until later. This was very much a firefighting operation, in response to a Covid-19 second wave that the government did not expect. Only weeks ago, after all, the talk was of autumn tax hikes.

How much unemployment rises depends on several factors. High amng them is the fact that the winter now looks, in economic terms, a lot colder.

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For half a year, unless things turn out a lot better than the scientists fear, not only are these latest restrictions unlikely to be lifted, but stricter measures may be introduced. This was a new and, for the economy, a damaging piece of messaging. When lockdown was introduced on March 23, there was always a hope that it would be lifted.

The prime minister said of the restrictions announced then: “We will look again in three weeks and relax them if the evidence shows we are able to.” It was not false hope; there was a progressive relaxation of the lockdown in subsequent weeks.

This time, no such hope was offered, only the threat of tougher measures. Maybe it would have been false hope; in March there was the warmer weather to look forward to, which offered the hope of naturally suppressing the spread of the disease. But the six-month timeframe was a serious blow, letting the tyres down on an economy that was still not properly motoring. You could almost hear the spirits drop.

What does it do for the recovery? As I have explained before, the path in and out of this recession is easy to describe. The precipitous fall in gross domestic product started around mid-March, even before formal lockdown, as people and businesses started changing their behaviour. It accelerated with lockdown and reached its nadir in April, the month of maximum lockdown.

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The economy should also have continued to grow this month, despite the latest announcements, and a small slippage in the “flash” estimate of the closely watched purchasing managers’ index. One reason for September’s growth should be the return of schools. School closures had a big negative effect on measured GDP in the second quarter. I do not want to upset any parents tearing their hair out trying to understand their children’s schoolwork and attempting to teach it but home tutoring does not count towards GDP. Neither does housework.

My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt.

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Let me start with Covid-19 itself. Many people will be aware of the daily figures for UK deaths from coronavirus, measured by people who have died within 28 days of having a first positive Covid-19 test. The cumulative total now stands at a little under 42,000. Even on the basis of this narrowest definition of Covid deaths, Britain has the fifth largest global death toll, after America, Brazil, India and Mexico.

Most people will also be aware, I hope, that this underestimates the true total. The Office for National Statistics’ weekly comparison, of numbers where Covid-19 is mentioned a cause of death on the death certificate, gave a total of 56,840 in the period to September 4. It is “a” cause of death for a reason; most victims – not all – had underlying health conditions. 56,840 is equivalent to a town the size of Macclesfield or Aldershot.

How does the death toll for Covid-19 compare with other causes of death? The answer is that many more people have died from other causes during the period of the pandemic, including dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, cancer, heart disease and strokes. Since late June more people have died each week with influenza and pneumonia – which often takes away the elderly - mentioned as a cause of death than Covid-19.

Overall, between the start of the pandemic – the first deaths - and September 4, 16.9% of deaths were attributed to Covid-19, the rest to other causes.
Before moving on, it is worth also mentioning another important figure, which is for excess deaths; those above the five-year average for this period. There were 57,793 excess deaths in England and Wales until September 4 and scaled up for Scotland and Northern Ireland gives a figure of around 65,000.

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At the start of this year, the consensus among independent economists, as sampled by the Treasury in its monthly compilation of independent forecasts, was that the economy would grow by a modest 1.1% this year. It was not looking like a good year, the slowest since the financial crisis, for an economy beset by Brexit and other uncertainties.

Little did we know. Now the consensus among economists is that the economy will contract by a huge 10% this year. “Contract” is too mild a word for that, as is shrink. Plunge would be better. Taking 2019’s gross domestic product as a starting point, and ignoring inflation, the difference between an economy growing by 1.1% and one plunging by 10% is £246bn.

In round numbers, the economy has taken a £250bn hit this year, and that is not the end of the story. There will be a cumulative loss of GDP in future years. Bouncing back is not just a question of getting back to where you were. It is also making up the lost ground with a period of stronger growth than was previously expected and that looks unlikely. Even in five years, the economy will be several percentage points smaller than previously expected.

To the human cost of the crisis in deaths and illness can be added the human cost in unemployment. At the start of the year, the consensus among economist was that the unemployment rate would end the year at 3.9%. It is already higher than that, as the latest figures show, and is now forecast to rise to 8.3%. The difference is equivalent to more than 1.5m additional people becoming unemployed, taking the total to just under 2.9m.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in its central scenario sees unemployment rising to 3.5m total this year, which implies that more than 2m people will have become unemployed as a result of the pandemic.

Its numbers for the public finances are even more eyecatching. This year government borrowing – the budget deficit – will be £267bn more than it expected before the pandemic, and £87 billion more next year, 2021-22. By the end of this parliament, government debt will be £600bn higher than it previously predicted. That is more than £9,000 for every man, woman and child in the country.

What do we conclude from these numbers? Many people will look to the example of Sweden, which did not have the same kind of lockdown as the UK, relying on voluntary social distancing, restrictions ion gatherings of more than 50 people, table-only service in bars and restaurants and limits on care home visits (where, as in this country, the coronavirus problem was worse). Sweden will suffer a smaller fall in GDP this year, 7.8% according to the OECD, and Covid-19 deaths there per 100,000 people are lower than in Britain.

My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt.

We are just coming up to the end of the first two weeks of September and you would have to say that the autumn has not started too well. On Covid-19, it has been a case of one step forward – the overwhelming majority of schools returning – and at least one back; new national restrictions on people gathering, the so-called rule of six, that could be in place for many months.

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One minute the chancellor is musing openly about how he might go about the task of repairing the public finances, the next Downing Street is talking of a “moonshot” of 10m tests a day, which could cost £100bn. The only comfort for the Treasury is that there is about as much change of this non-existent technology delivering as there is of Britain landing a man or woman on the moon next year.

It reminds me, painfully, of how non-existent technology was going to solve the problem of the Irish border, and the state of the Brexit negotiations and the government’s deliberate breaking of international law is another sorry start to the autumn. It seems like a long time since we could have our cake and eat it and the German car manufacturers would appear on the horizon and come to our rescue. They won’t. The head of the BDI, which represents German industry, said that the British government “is losing credibility on a huge scale”. I will write about the Brexit mess, but not just yet.

Instead, amid all this gloom, I wanted to try to offer just a tiny glimpse of optimism. A sharp rise in unemployment later in the autumn and over the winter would compound what the government’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, has predicted will be a “difficult” few months for Covid-19.

It is quite hard to be optimistic about unemployment. I have written before that keeping the total below 3m (from 1.34m now) would be an achievement. Gordon Brown, the former chancellor and prime minister, has warned of a “tsunami” of mass unemployment, said that pleas for help are falling on “deaf ears” at 10 and 11 Downing Street, and urged a package of measures

The Office for National Statistics will provide an update on Tuesday, though covering a period under furlough, which has held down recorded unemployment. Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have both ruled out an extension of the furlough scheme, though the Johnson premiership has characterised by U-turns.

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So where is the glimpse of optimism I promised? It comes in two parts. The first, while it may not be enough when set against the tsunami to come, is that we are seeing some job creation announcements amid the gloom. We know which sectors are suffering, notably city centre hospitality, transport and travel, and so on, and tomorrow’s restrictions will not help.

My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt.

It is easy sometimes to forget what an extraordinary period we are living through. There are many ways to capture it with statistics but let me today provide you with just one. What will public spending be this year as a proportion of the economy? What will the state’s share be?

The answer, according to the government’s fiscal watchdog and forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), is no less than 54% of gross domestic product. That is on the basis of its central scenario. If things turn out worse than it expects, the spending share could be as high as 58%. Even in its optimistic take it is 50%

Let me put that in perspective. In 1976, the peak spending share when Britain had to turn to the International Monetary Fund for a humiliating bailout was much lower, 46.4%.

It was also lower in 2009-10, when high levels of spending and borrowing prompted the coalition government’s austerity programme. Then the peak level of spending was 46.3% of GDP.

The level of spending we are seeing this year is normally only witnessed during wartime, when the state mobilises the private sector to pursue the war effort. Indeed, to add to the comparison, this year’s 54% would be the highest since 1946, at the start of post-war demobilisation.

There has been a flavour of wartime mobilisation during the Covid-19 crisis in the quickly negotiated (and in some cases very bad) personal protection equipment contracts, schemes to quickly make ventilators and to buy up future vaccine supplies and, most notably, in policies like the job retention scheme. The government paid people’s wages, not in this case to fight the enemy, but to stay at home on furlough.

This Covid-19 version of the war effort has so far resulted in £178bn of additional public spending this year, out of £192bn of fiscal support, the rest in the form of tax measures. That is unlikely to be the final bill, So, when we are looking at the public spending share of the economy, the numerator has gone up a lot.

At the same time, of course, the denominator, GDP, will show a fall this year of a magnitude that we have not seen for a century. The OBR predicts a 12.4% drop in GDP this year, slightly more than the 10% drop which is the average among independent forecasters. Either way, a large contraction in the economy and a big increase in public spending can only mean one thing: a substantial rise in the state’s share of the economy.

It helps explain why the chancellor’s thoughts are turning to tax increases, as revealed by this newspaper last weekend, and in the speaking notes for a meeting with Tory MPs he inadvertently gave us a glimpse of last Wednesday.

I have argued here before that a one-off increase in the spending share and in public borrowing need not result in tax hikes. Yes, the crisis means more borrowing and higher debt, but if the extra borrowing is short-lived, that need not be a problem.

The context for that view was the OBR’s first look at the impact of the coronavirus, back in April. Then it expected that the impact of Covid-19 on the public finances would be sharp but temporary, with the path of public borrowing quickly returning to what it had expected before the crisis.

Things have changed. The OBR, like other forecasters, no longer expects a short, sharp fiscal shock. The hangover for the public finances will last for some years. Even in 2024-25, it thinks the budget deficit will be nearly 5% of GDP, compared with a pre-crisis prediction of just over 2%. The deficit then is expected to be double in cash terms what was previously expected. That is why, in his own words, Rishi Sunak wants to “correct our public finances” and re-establish the Tory reputation for “sound finance”.

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There are many things you might have expected to happen as lockdown was eased but I suspect that a housing boom was not one of them. At a time when it has been harder than expected to get people out of their homes, it was not obvious that the first thing on the minds of many would be moving to a new one.

That there has been a burst of housing activity and a jump in prices is not in doubt, and I shall come onto some of the evidence in a moment. It is possible, of course, that some of this has been stimulated by the experience of lockdown itself, and the prospect of permanent changes in working arrangements.

Who would not want to work from home in a thatched cottage in St Mary Mead, rather than slogging in on the 7.32 to Waterloo, followed by a sweaty Tube journey? Other cities will have their variations on this.

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So what is driving a market that, according to the Nationwide building society saw prices rise by 1.7% last month, with the Halifax only fractionally behind at 1,6%, pushing prices to record levels and annual rates of house-price inflation higher?

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) suggested that the easing of lockdown – the housing market reopened three months ago – lifted buyer enquiries out of their post-referendum torpor. According to the RICS’ residential market survey, a net balance of 75% of surveyors (those reporting a rise rather than those reporting a fall) saw a rise in in new buyer enquiries last month.
Surveyors also had something to sell, with a net balance of 59% recording an increase in instructions to sell. In the past few weeks the market has come back to life with a bang.

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There has been a second factor, supported by traffic figures from Rightmove, the property portal, and its rivals. When Brits were at home, they did not just watch Netflix, bake bread and grow beards. Many scoured the property websites. To this can be added the fact that the normal housing market summer lull, as people disappear to foreign parts, has not really happened this year.

A third factor is, of course, that the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, could not rely on these natural forces to continue lifting the market, so in his summer economic update last month increased the stamp duty threshold in England to £500,000. Some other parts of the UK have lower thresholds, reflecting lower house prices. He was worried that the housebuilders were reluctant to start work on new sites and wanted to provide the additional boost to consumer spending that stronger housing market activity provides. When people move, they spend, on furniture, furnishings and other things.

There is, it seems, a definite stamp duty effect. Knight Frank, the estate agent, reported that the number of offers accepted in the UK market between July 8 and August 3, after the stamp duty announcement, was 146% above the five-year average for that period. Not all of that was the impact of the stamp duty cut, but much of it was.

My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt.

Today, something slightly different. This is in the nature of an economic version of a request show. I have had many requests to write about what is known as modern monetary theory (MMT) and this is my response. MMT has been around for some time, decades or even centuries according to its advocates, but it is relevant now.

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But I am getting ahead of myself. The reason for writing about MMT now is the recently published book by Stephanie Kelton, professor of economics and public policy at America’s Stony Brook University, and one of MMT’s leading advocates. She advised Bernie Sanders, who ran Joe Biden close for the nomination as Democrat challenger for the US presidency. Her book, the Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and How to Build a Better Economy, is published in this country by John Murray.

It is proving popular, for good reason. Not only are plenty of people interested in MMT but it is written in a non-technical, accessible, even folksy style. It is being read by non-economists, as all the emails I have received urging me to write about it attest, as well as being on the summer reading lists for many economics’ students. Last time I looked it was Amazon’s bestseller in macroeconomics and within sight of the top 1,000 among all titles.

It is arranged as a series of myth-busting chapters, though I do not know if people who are aware of conventional economics believe many of these myths. The first “myth” is that there the government’s budget is not the same as a household budget, something that I thought had been buried many years ago. The same goes for most of the other myths.

The central idea of MMT is simple. It distinguishes between currency issuers and currency users. The only currency issuer in America is the US Treasury, and the Federal Reserve acting as its agent. Everybody else is a currency user.

As a currency issuer, the government has the ability to print as much money as it needs. The budget deficit itself is not a constraint, and neither is government debt. Some claim, wrongly I think, that MMT has already been adopted, in effect, in response to the Covid-19 crisis.

In the world of MMT the government can print enough money to cover a deficit of any size and in extremis to pay off all the accumulated debt of the past. The only tests of whether a budget deficit is too large or too small are inflation and unemployment. If inflation is low, the budget deficit cannot be too high, and if there is unemployment, the budget deficit must be too low.

Many people will be catching their breath at this point, not least because Kelton claims that this is not just a theory but an explanation of how the world works. But that then requires us to be taken down a rabbit hole of implausibility.

If deficits can be costlessly funded and managed by the simple device of issuing currency, why do governments need to raise taxes? In perhaps the least plausible explanation of the way incentives work, people apparently need to work to meet their tax obligations. If they did not have to pay tax, they would not need to work. I rather think they would, to satisfy their wants. Another reason provided for taxing to redistribute wealth and income, does not wash either. You can redistribute wealth and income within the tax system without raising any net revenues, by taking from the rich and giving it to the poor in tax credits.

Taxation exists in the real world to raise revenue. And borrowing by governments also plainly exists. Her explanation is that this is not to raise money, because governments do not need to, but “to offer people a different kind of government money, one that pays a bit of interest”. Try telling that to American and British governments in the past, which have paid a lot of interest to fund their borrowing and have sometimes struggled to do so.

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MMT is misnamed because it is not monetary at all but almost entirely fiscal. As Kelton puts it: “MMT requires us to demote monetary policy and elevate fiscal policy as the primary tool for macroeconomic stabilization.”

So what should we think about this? MMT has drawn robust criticism from some of the world’s most eminent economists. Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, writing last year under the headline Modern Monetary Nonsense, described its central idea as “just nuts”. An exasperated Paul Krugman has described trying to debate with MMT advocates as like playing Calvinball, a game in which players make up the rules as they go along.

Larry Summers, the notable economist and former US treasury secretary, has attacked the “ludicrous claims” by “fringe economists who hold them out as offering the proverbial free lunch: the ability of the government to spend more without imposing any burden on anyone”.

My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt.

When the economy has been hit by as profound a shock as Covid-19, and the unprecedented lockdown measures adopted to limit its spread, we should take comfort where we can. The Bank of England, which gave us its latest forecast on Thursday in its quarterly monetary policy report, offered a modicum of such comfort.

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The Bank, which in an “illustrative scenario” in May suggested that gross domestic product (GDP) could fall by 14% this year, hence the early 1700s’ comparisons, is not yet putting out the bunting. The UK’s recession this year is predicted to be worse than that of the eurozone, down 8%, and America, down 5.75%.

It also provides a health warning that would grace any cigarette packet or box of pills, noting that the outlook “will depend critically on the evolution of the pandemic, measures taken to protect public health, and how governments, households and businesses respond to these factors” and that its “projections assume that the direct impact of Covid-19 on the economy dissipates gradually over the forecast period”.

Those are the key assumptions for the Bank, and for other so-called V-shapers like me. It does not help when people talk about a second wave of Covid-19, because that is usually associated with flu outbreaks, which are more severe in the winter. This coronavirus, currently raging in very hot countries, does not appear to be weather-dependent. Even so, if easing lockdown means a return of the infections and deaths, to the point where lockdowns have to be reimposed (and if there are enough local lockdowns you get many of the effects of a national lockdown) that is bad news for the recovery.

On the assumption of a gradual dissipation of Covid-19, as has happened with previous pandemics, the recovery is both rapid and dramatic. After a huge 21% GDP fall in the second quarter, the Bank predicts an extraordinary 18% in the current third quarter. Both represent record-breaking quarterly changes, by a very large margin.

Similarly, after this year’s 9.5% fall, the economy grows by 9% next year, according to the Bank, and gets back to where it was at the end of 2019, before we knew what was coming, by late 2021. That, as Simon French of Panmure Gordon points out, would represent the most rapid recovery in 50 years.

It would also underline the highly unusual nature of this recession and recovery. We have the deepest recession in nearly a century but the downturn happened in just two months, March and April, as lockdown was imposed. Assuming the June GDP monthly GDP figures this week show a rise (the Bank expects a 9% increase on the month), the economy’s journey out of the low point will be confirmed.

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It also depends on the labour market, and here the Bank has done some invaluable work. The furlough or job retention scheme has been a huge government intervention but the Treasury and Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs (HMRC) have little information on how many people are currently covered by it, as opposed to the cumulative 9.6m total of employees who have benefited from it at some stage.

The Resolution Foundation think tank has done some useful digging, and now so has the Bank. It estimates that, on average, 6m people were furloughed at any one time during the April-June quarter, and that numbers peaked at over 7m in May. This quarter, July-September, it thinks that the average number of people furloughed will come down to 2m, dropping further to 1m in October, the scheme’s final month. The Bank’s decision maker panel, the latest results of which were also out on Thursday, revealed that at 18% of employees were furloughed in July, down from 30% in June.